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Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.’s energy investment and merchant banking analysts significantly cut their WTI oil price outlook for 2018.
cost inflation and limited OPEC capacity” maintain pressure on oil prices, according to a report released March 20.
The more conservative forecast sets oil prices at $55 for the second quarter of 2017, $60 for the third and $65 for the fourth.
The group pared the price forecast for next year to $65 per barrel (bbl) from $75/bbl in response to revved up U.S. supply growth.
For 2019 and beyond, they return to their prior call of $75/bbl as “U.S.
This Single Model Explains Oil Price Swings
Basic economic theory would tell you that as the price declines, so does oil supply.
The price went down, and people pumped.
The price went down, and people pumped more!
Iran does something bad, and the price of oil gaps up three bucks.
One of the things we learned when oil collapsed a couple of years ago—something I’ve written about previously—was that there was a positive feedback loop embedded in declining oil prices.
Norwegian oil consumption is now around 0.2 Mb/d, and with what is known about Norwegian crude oil reserves, Norway will remain a net exporter of crude oil for another 20 to 30 years.
Related: OPEC Out Of Moves As Goldman Sachs Expects Another Oil Glut In 2018The development in other non-OPEC crude oil supplies while oil prices remained high is a giveaway about their future potential for crude oil supplies.
The chart also reveals another interesting fact, other non-OPEC (light green area) had a negligible change to their oil extraction during the years the oil price remained high.
Figure 06 illustrates that about 50 percent of the NCS crude oil extraction in 2016 was from 42 fields/discoveries (out of 76 with reported crude oil extraction) with an R/P ratio of 5 or less.
Discoveries sanctioned for development and Johan Sverdrup (with an expected start up late 2019) is expected to generally slow down the decline in Norwegian crude oil extraction.
collected by :Jack Alex