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Morgan Stanley admits it got Brexit economic forecasts wrong

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follow the latest news in economic from different sites most famous technicals /Ashoka Mody by 2017-01-05 at 21:34

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The economic consensus was horribly wrong and here are the real reasons Brexit is succeeding

The economic consensus was horribly wrong and here are the real reasons Brexit is succeeding*/

– In the days before the vote on whether Britain should remain in the European Union, a chorus of voices warned that a decision to leave would lead to economic disaster.At home, the warnings came from former Chancellor of Exchequer George Osborne and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney.Abroad, grim forecasts were made by Christine Lagarde, managing director of the IMF, and by José Ángel Gurría, secretary-general of the OECD.
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Morgan Stanley admits it got Brexit economic forecasts wrong

Morgan Stanley admits it got Brexit economic forecasts wrong*/

– Morgan Stanley, one of the world’s biggest investment banks, is — in its own words — “eating humble pie” about its post-Brexit economic forecasts.The American bank was one of the more pessimistic financial institutions after the referendum, predicting a Brexit induced recession and a long-lasting slowdown in the British economy off the back of diminished investment and weakening consumer demand.After the economy proved more resilient than expected in the first quarter after the vote, MS economists Melanie Baker and Jacob Nell, and strategist Anton Hesse cancelled their recession forecast, writing in early September: “We’ve ‘marked-to-market’ our growth forecast from a sharp slowdown and Brecession to a lesser slowdown, which narrowly avoids a technical recession.”
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Brexit economic hit will kick in after 2020 general election, Cambridge study finds

Brexit economic hit will kick in after 2020 general election, Cambridge study finds*/

– The hit to the British economy from leaving the EU will likely start to bite after the next general election in 2020, a Cambridge University study has warned.Economists at the university’s Centre of Business Research modelled the economic effects from the referendum and found that any pain from the “large shock to the UK economy” would have to be dealt with by whoever won the next election.Uncertainty caused by the referendum result will initially be offset in the economic figures by a lower exchange rate making British exports more attractive, they said.
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Brexit turmoil after envoy’s resignation; backtracking on fracking and China’s economic future

Brexit turmoil after envoy’s resignation; backtracking on fracking and China’s economic future*/

– Sign up to receive FirstFT by email hereBritain’s exit negotiations are in disarray following the unexpected resignation of the country’s ambassador to the EU.Sir Ivan Rogers, one of the UK’s most experienced negotiators, was said by colleagues to be “frustrated” that his warnings about Brexit’s complexity were being ignored by conservative politicians.In a letter to his staff he warned of “muddled thinking” on the EU and urged them to “speak truth to those in power”.
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